Internal projection graphs, 1977–2003, filed with the 2023 scoring assessment and its public data and code repository
- Origin
- Company memoranda; a peer-reviewed assessment; an open data repository
- Dated
- projections 1977–2003; assessment 2023
- Extent
- graphs reproduced, 24; assessment 8 with supplementary; repository, code and data pages
- Status
- accepted
- Redactions
- None. The bracketed note is ours and is marked as ours.
Chain of custody
Nothing here was obtained by this newspaper. The memoranda have been in circulation for years, several of the underlying projections were published at the time in the open literature under their authors' names, and the assessment's data and code were placed in a public repository by its authors. Our contribution was to download the repository and re-run the computation, then vary the baselines and intervals to see whether the result moved. It did not move much. Our run log is held with this file.
Held by: They Buried, document room; our re-run log and outputs held with it
Excerpt
Average skill score across the projections: 72% ± 6. Best single projection: 99%. Proportion consistent with subsequent observations: 63–83%. Average projected warming: 0.20 ± 0.04 °C per decade — within uncertainty the same as independent academic and government projections of 1970–2007. [They Buried re-ran the published computation from the authors' own code. Our numbers matched. This is the least surprising line in the file and the reason the file is in the vault.]
Transcribed by the data desk. Line breaks follow the original. Bracketed matter is ours.
Editor's note
Filed as the vault's clearest example of a document that was never hidden and was never checked. The memoranda had been read, quoted and argued about for years; nobody had scored them. What changed in 2023 was arithmetic rather than archaeology, and the document desk would like that distinction noticed, because most of the claims that come through this door are about concealment when the actual failure was that nobody did the sum.
Cited in
- Their Own Scientists Drew The Curve In 1982. It Was Right.Suppressed Science · Aug 10